How else can we describe the struggle between aircraft manufacturers? I’m not just talking about Airbus and Boeing, but also about engine manufacturers, equipment manufacturers and new entrants, Chinese in particular, not to mention Embraer and even ATR. The figures published by the firm ID Aero, whose analyses are authoritative, are a bit dizzying.

The stakes are high. The amounts are so large that it is difficult to imagine them. Come on, let’s get into the big numbers. It is estimated that currently 26,750 aircraft are in commercial service worldwide. Manufacturers, Boeing in particular, estimate that there will be 50,000 air transport fleets by 2044, which is in less than 20 years and this corresponds to a doubling of the number of aircraft. But that’s not all, the average size of devices is steadily increasing. It has gone from 50 seats in the 1950s to 100 seats 20 years later and to 200 seats now. And the aircraft are flying farther and farther. Let’s also keep in mind that the average price of a commercial aircraft is around 100 million dollars, all of which is very approximate because between the list price and the amount actually paid by buyers there is a huge difference, which is not only on the airframes, but also on the engines.

So in this context, the two giants are obviously Airbus and Boeing. The latter has taken a knee following purely disastrous decisions which, in recent years, have consisted of privileging the stock market price by abandoning the vocation of the company. The price to pay was colossal with 2 fatal accidents causing the death of nearly 300 passengers, not to mention a large number of other incidents that could have increased this number. It should also be noted that Boeing has just been ordered to pay $28 million to the heirs of a victim of the Ethiopian Airlines crash. We must hope for the manufacturer that this does not snowball. The new management of the American giant led by Kelly Ortberg, an engineer and not a financier, is back on the right track.

At the end of October, Airbus still had 8,698 aircraft on order and Boeing 6,534, and the amount will increase further for the two protagonists following the Dubai Air Show. At 100 million dollars per unit, the sales figures are dizzying, it’s more than 1,500 billion dollars, in other words 1 and a half times the total turnover of air transport 2025. The deal is all the more interesting between the two manufacturers as they have offers in direct competition: the B737 MAX for one and the A320 for the other in the medium-haul category and the A350 opposite the B777X for very large aircraft. The characteristics are pretty much identical, except that Airbus has a big advantage with the A350 already on the market for a long time while the B777X is not yet certified and will not be far from 15 years behind its competitor when it enters service.

And the fight doesn’t stop there. Engine manufacturers hold a large part of the forces involved. Three of them are in the running: Rolls-Royce, which specialises in very large engines, is followed by GE, which is developing an even larger machine to equip the B 777X. The fight is also severe for the smaller engines. The prices are also huge: a very large engine can cost more than $40 million. So often engine manufacturers make offers for rent. For the smallest engines that equip medium-haul aircraft, the rental rate is around €200,000 per month. France’s Safran, allied with General Electric, has become a major supplier in this category with the American Pratt & Whitney.

And then you also have to count on the major equipment manufacturers such as the French Thales or the American Rockwell Collins. For them too, the field of competition is global, each contract is very remunerative and their turnover is of the order of a large group of airlines.

For the smallest holders, the horizon has brightened. Bombardier was bought by Airbus and Embraer after going through a difficult time during Covid has developed a range of aircraft with less than 100 seats, very efficient, so that the Brazilian manufacturer has abandoned its turboprop project leaving ATR alone in this market niche.

The Chinese, with the manufacturer COMAC, are seriously starting to show their noses, even outside China, by placing their first aircraft outside their borders with Lao Airlines. Largely supported by their government, it would be surprising not to see them arrive in force on the African continent.

The market is gigantic, the operators are few, and the fight promises to be fierce.

Decidedly, you have to have a strong backbone to create an airline. The more we advance in technology, the more perfect safety becomes, the more fuel consumption decreases, the more air transport basically becomes a model for the future of the planet and the more it is attacked. And in this group, carriers, those who ultimately take all the risks, are the most impacted by the attacks on this sector of activity.

For decades, civil aviation has been the darling of governments. The latter have largely helped their national companies to develop with all kinds of protection and massive injections of money. They did it because they found it to their advantage. An important company was the image of the country and played a major role in its political influence but also in its economic development. This fruitful collaboration has led to the creation of modern air transport, which has been one of the main drivers of global growth by promoting trade.

And then, in the short time being, let’s say less than ten years, the perception of air transport by the political authorities has changed. It must be said, in their defence, that the sector has not been free of excesses, in particular because it has not managed to integrate the arrival of the “low cost” model in a quiet way. Instead of accepting it as a convenient way to develop a new customer base, traditional carriers have had no other goal than to compete with new entrants when they would have been much better off cooperating with them. This is how the disastrous price war began. The insane call rates have been copied even by traditional airlines and customers have rushed to travel for a yes or no, because that’s how freedom is exercised. This led to the development of “over-tourism”.

And from that moment on, the legitimacy of air transport was called into question. It has become the emblem of the destruction of the planet, when this is totally false. Except that we can still see the effects of a certain overconsumption. From then on, it was easy to point the finger at this growing means of transport, but whose effects could lead to regrettable disorders. The “shame of travelling” began to creep into people’s minds and governments took advantage of this to take administrative limitation measures, and to levy taxes whose destination was not devoted to research to further decarbonize air transport, but to support its competitor, the railway, which was never able to finance itself.

And now a new danger awaits this activity. This involves the use of drones to disrupt the airspace around major airports. Thus, European air transport has become a new target in the war between Russia and Ukraine. It is easy, not very defended, and a single drone can not only force the temporary closure of a major airport, but also disrupt the operation of airlines because it only takes one “hub” to be threatened to disrupt an entire operation. In addition, the media impact is immediately very important.

Basically, air transport will now become the target of all the discontented. Environmentalists have made it their main target, governments have found a mine to balance their budgets, and the military is using it to settle their differences. Instead of tackling the fundamental issues, it becomes more practical and certainly simpler to point the finger at air transport, even if, deep down, the rulers are well aware that this is not the solution. But it is a sector of activity that is both media and popular because a majority of voters are still not users of this mode of transport.

In the midst of this, some companies continue to do well, even if they are also subject to strong geopolitical constraints. Emirates, to name just one, has just achieved a historic result: $3.3 billion in profit in a single quarter. This can bring back a certain optimism in this much-maligned activity and one wonders why.

And optimism will be needed.