The Struggle of the Giants
How else can we describe the struggle between aircraft manufacturers? I’m not just talking about Airbus and Boeing, but also about engine manufacturers, equipment manufacturers and new entrants, Chinese in particular, not to mention Embraer and even ATR. The figures published by the firm ID Aero, whose analyses are authoritative, are a bit dizzying.
The stakes are high. The amounts are so large that it is difficult to imagine them. Come on, let’s get into the big numbers. It is estimated that currently 26,750 aircraft are in commercial service worldwide. Manufacturers, Boeing in particular, estimate that there will be 50,000 air transport fleets by 2044, which is in less than 20 years and this corresponds to a doubling of the number of aircraft. But that’s not all, the average size of devices is steadily increasing. It has gone from 50 seats in the 1950s to 100 seats 20 years later and to 200 seats now. And the aircraft are flying farther and farther. Let’s also keep in mind that the average price of a commercial aircraft is around 100 million dollars, all of which is very approximate because between the list price and the amount actually paid by buyers there is a huge difference, which is not only on the airframes, but also on the engines.
So in this context, the two giants are obviously Airbus and Boeing. The latter has taken a knee following purely disastrous decisions which, in recent years, have consisted of privileging the stock market price by abandoning the vocation of the company. The price to pay was colossal with 2 fatal accidents causing the death of nearly 300 passengers, not to mention a large number of other incidents that could have increased this number. It should also be noted that Boeing has just been ordered to pay $28 million to the heirs of a victim of the Ethiopian Airlines crash. We must hope for the manufacturer that this does not snowball. The new management of the American giant led by Kelly Ortberg, an engineer and not a financier, is back on the right track.
At the end of October, Airbus still had 8,698 aircraft on order and Boeing 6,534, and the amount will increase further for the two protagonists following the Dubai Air Show. At 100 million dollars per unit, the sales figures are dizzying, it’s more than 1,500 billion dollars, in other words 1 and a half times the total turnover of air transport 2025. The deal is all the more interesting between the two manufacturers as they have offers in direct competition: the B737 MAX for one and the A320 for the other in the medium-haul category and the A350 opposite the B777X for very large aircraft. The characteristics are pretty much identical, except that Airbus has a big advantage with the A350 already on the market for a long time while the B777X is not yet certified and will not be far from 15 years behind its competitor when it enters service.
And the fight doesn’t stop there. Engine manufacturers hold a large part of the forces involved. Three of them are in the running: Rolls-Royce, which specialises in very large engines, is followed by GE, which is developing an even larger machine to equip the B 777X. The fight is also severe for the smaller engines. The prices are also huge: a very large engine can cost more than $40 million. So often engine manufacturers make offers for rent. For the smallest engines that equip medium-haul aircraft, the rental rate is around €200,000 per month. France’s Safran, allied with General Electric, has become a major supplier in this category with the American Pratt & Whitney.
And then you also have to count on the major equipment manufacturers such as the French Thales or the American Rockwell Collins. For them too, the field of competition is global, each contract is very remunerative and their turnover is of the order of a large group of airlines.
For the smallest holders, the horizon has brightened. Bombardier was bought by Airbus and Embraer after going through a difficult time during Covid has developed a range of aircraft with less than 100 seats, very efficient, so that the Brazilian manufacturer has abandoned its turboprop project leaving ATR alone in this market niche.
The Chinese, with the manufacturer COMAC, are seriously starting to show their noses, even outside China, by placing their first aircraft outside their borders with Lao Airlines. Largely supported by their government, it would be surprising not to see them arrive in force on the African continent.
The market is gigantic, the operators are few, and the fight promises to be fierce.
