Air Transport, A Victim of Geo Politics
The global geopolitical situation does not encourage optimism, at least at the beginning of 2025. Conflicts, even localized ones, have an unfortunate tendency to multiply. In Europe, there is still this war between Russia and Ukraine, and even though strong pressure is being exerted on the Ukrainian President, we still do not see the end of the tunnel. Africa is shaken by internal tensions in certain states, such as Sudan and Ethiopia, but also by territorial disputes between Rwanda and Congo, as well as Algeria and Morocco over Western Sahara. France’s decision to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over this territory has led to strong diplomatic tensions with Algeria. The Asian situation is also impacted by China’s claims over Taiwan and the ongoing latent conflict between the two Koreas, not to mention population transfers between Myanmar and Thailand. The Middle East still struggles to find a lasting solution between Israel and its neighbors.
America has not been spared either, especially with the recent arrival in power of the new President of the United States, who seems eager to add fuel to the fire wherever he can, including by claiming possession of Greenland and Panama. In short, none of this encourages optimism.
And what happens to air transport in all this? If we look at it as a whole, it is strongly impacted—an unsurprising observation given that this mode of transport, designed to connect people of various nationalities, is naturally sensitive to any changes in international relations. We must consider the entire industry, from aircraft manufacturing to the final transport of passengers, including the negotiation of traffic rights, which have become a major geopolitical tool, as well as embargo decrees used as weapons of war. Not to mention the granting of visas and overflight bans.
For example, European operators are at a significant disadvantage compared to their Chinese counterparts in trade between the Old Continent and Asia. No longer able to cross the vast Siberian airspace controlled by Russia—since Russia prohibits them from flying over its territory in response to Western sanctions—they are forced to extend their journeys by two hours in each direction. Meanwhile, Chinese airlines can freely use the much shorter Siberian route.
On a completely different note, Brexit has deprived British carriers of access to the European Open Skies agreement, which had been highly beneficial to them. While they have found ways to circumvent this challenge by creating new companies under European law, this has not improved trade between the UK and the rest of Europe. Similarly, some believe they can influence political relations between France and Algeria by leveraging traffic rights—limiting or even eliminating them until the current tensions are resolved. This issue is all the more sensitive given the large Algerian diaspora in France, many of whom maintain strong family ties with their country of origin.
The embargo imposed on Russia has also had a major impact on aircraft maintenance within the country. The vast majority of Russian-operated aircraft are of Western origin, and their maintenance relies on the supply of spare parts. However, Russia can only obtain these parts through indirect channels and in limited quantities. Without efficient air transport, it is difficult to see how Russia could avoid economic regression, even if its mineral and energy resources allow it to sustain a sufficient budget.
Fundamentally, we are witnessing a shift in global geopolitics toward isolationism, reminiscent of the period following the First World War. This is particularly unfortunate given that the tremendous momentum of international cooperation—largely driven by the rapid expansion of air travel—has helped transform the world in recent decades, despite certain challenges along the way.
Still, the desire to travel remains as strong as ever. There are no signs of a slowdown in the growth of the aviation industry, which is an encouraging sign for the world. As long as people wish to meet others from different cultures, it will contribute to easing tensions. There are also some glimmers of optimism here and there—for example, in Syria or in the improving relations between Kurdistan and Turkey. Lebanon is gradually regaining its autonomy.
Air transport remains an essential tool for peace in an increasingly unstable world. Unlike social networks, which often isolate individuals rather than bringing them together, aviation fosters real human connections—for the better.
