Air travel is full of ups and downs, even though it has grown almost steadily at 5% per year since the end of the Second World War. It was built by airlines that developed an international system of cooperation between carriers and relentless search for safety, well helped by manufacturers and managing authorities of this activity.

And yet the course counted many deaths and not the least. In the United States alone, since 1960, 65 companies have entered the “Chapter 11” regime, the equivalent of European bankruptcy filing, and 32 of them have had to cease operations. And among these victims are the biggest names in air transport.

PAN AM for starters. It is thanks to this company that air transport has become an international activity and a real travel product, first recognized by customers. This carrier opened the north-south transpacific and trans-American routes before 1940. It created the operational and commercial tools, including the electronic reservation systems that were copiedby all its competitors. It operated the first Boeing 747s, opened its own terminals at many airports. In short, if air transport has reached the level of excellence that we know it, it is largely because PAN AM has cleared and organized the activity. And yet the company created in 1927 finally disappeared on December 4, 1991. It did not resist the arrival of  “low costs” on American territory and the Lockerbie attack completed it. And above all, she finally succumbed to a certain arrogance because the leaders, as well as the employees, simply believed her unwantable.

The same story happened again a few years later for its competitor TWA, which shared international long-haul routes with PAN AM. Led for years by the whimsical yet brilliant Howard Hughes, it had become the emblem of a chic and conquering America. She too was the victim of a terrible accident that blew up flight TW 800 from New York Paris on July 17, 1996. Finally the company had to resolve to merge with American Airlines in 2001 and disappear from the sky.

The same causes producing the same effects the three other American giants rescued from successive mergers and mergers: American Airlines created in 1930, Delta Airlines born in 1924 and United Airlines whose operations began in 1926, are all passed through the claudine forks of “Chapter 11”. It is to be feared that without this device finally very well thought out, they will have suffered the same fate as their unfortunate competitors.

Elsewhere, in the world, the majority of major operators have also been led to bankruptcy or stupidly to their disappearance. This is, for example, the case of Swissair created in 1931 and disappeared on March 31, 2022, Alitalia whose origin dates back to 1946 and the disappearance on October 15, 2021, Japan Airlines which operated since 1951 and whose bankruptcy was registered on January 18, 2010, or Varig, the major Brazilian carrier, died on 09 April 2001 although he existed since 1927.

We could mention many other renowned operators. Even recently SAS yet often cited as an example had to resolve to the American “Chapter 11” on July 05, 2022.  Finally, what remains of the great historical companies? Curiously, the three largest European operators have withstood the vagaries of history. Air France, admittedly very widely supported by successive French governments, finally went through extreme turbulence with, it should be remembered, two highly publicized crashes: the Concorde and the Rio-Paris. British Airways, which was thought to be moribund in the early 2000s, has achieved a spectacular recovery, at the cost of a terrible reduction in its network. Lufthansa, for its part, has not been spared by the difficulties, in particular the terrible crash of the flight of its subsidiary Germanwings in the French Alps.

The will to survive of both has led them to look the new realities in the face and first of all the “low cost” phenomenon that has really swept through Europe. In one way or another, these three major operators ended up adapting by being at the initiative of groups of companies that all kept their image and a certain autonomy unlike what happened in the USA.

We need another editorial to analyze the situation in Asia and Africa… and the recent emergence of Gulf carriers. Let us salute the successes and respect the companies that have disappeared.

Let’s assume that we are out of the nightmare of the pandemic since China has just dropped its barriers. It is the last country after being the first to close its borders. Vaccines are effective and the vast majority of populations are now protected. And finally, air transport is not doing so badly, and we can even imagine that Covid has been beneficial to it, for several reasons.

First, it showed its usefulness to such an extent that the states supported it even beyond what could be hoped. Thus the US has injected more than 60 billion dollars to keep the companies alive, France has massively supported its national carrier, but also, even in a lesser way, the other companies, and the German government has gone so far as to take shares in the Lufthansa group when it was against its principles and those of the company. Italy tried desperately to save Alitalia, but that patient was terminally ill and had to resign himself to the loss of his national jewel to replace it with ITA.

All this clearly shows how air transport is considered by States to be of exceptional importance. Governments have understood that it is both an essential factor in the economy and the best ambassador of countries. At the height of the pandemic, it proved its usefulness in transporting masks and vaccines. No one doubts its usefulness anymore, here is the first result.

And then during this troubled period, officials took the opportunity to launch major reorganization maneuvers. A large number of employees have left the sector, which has made it possible to reduce the size of the workforce without having to face major social movements. Thus companies now find themselves with a reduced payroll and a better organization. The recovery has certainly forced hiring to resume, but it is necessary to get traffic through. As a result, ratios are improving and the results that are beginning to be published for 2022 reflect a better performance in the management of companies.

Meanwhile, many carriers took the opportunity to ground the oldest aircraft and replace them with the latest generation of aircraft that are more suitable and more efficient. This has several advantages. First, a serious step towards carbon neutrality, which remains the essential condition for the acceptance of air transport by new generations. The new aircraft are more comfortable, better

equipped, and the air transport product is seriously improved. Finally, the new aircraft consume less fuel, so they cost less and they are ready for the use of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel). Still, many ground devices are quite suitable for use. It would be a shame to let them rot when they would be very useful in some countries that still do not have access to new aircraft.

Finally, prices have risen significantly. The mad race for volumes from ever lower tariffs has come to an abrupt end. Increases of around 30% have become commonplace. So this irritates a part of consumers who had become accustomed to traveling for ridiculous prices but which they finally thought were the norm. We are gradually returning to common sense, on the express condition that the tariff war does not resume. The danger is not removed because we are going towards a period where the supply will be plethoric between the new devices ordered and those that will leave the car parks. For the moment, demand is still dynamic and it accepts the new fee schedules. For their part, carriers have seen the value of not selling off their seats recklessly. The financial results were well affected.

What would have happened without the abrupt halt of air transport, for more than 2 years as a result of the pernicious Covid? No doubt the infernal race in which it was launched: more passengers, more aircraft, less revenue, would have continued until the moment when the populations would have demonstrated a rejection of this mode of transport under increased ecologist pressure. The equilibrium load factors would be raised above 90% leading to a deterioration in the quality of service. And the companies’ financial results would have remained just as precarious.

Covid has forced air travel to return to its fundamentals: a quality product, sold at a simply reasonable price.

And that’s fine.

Italian air transport is still coveted, but all attempts to control it have so far failed. In fact, this mainly concerns international traffic because domestic transport has passed into the hands of “low cost” companies, first and foremost Ryanair followed by EasyJet. All this because the national company has not been able to defend its positions, eaten away by successive. plagued by successive flip-flops linked to the numerous government changes.

It is striking, however, that most Italian government officials have sought to get rid of a burden they could no longer bear without deciding to go through with their efforts. This is how, from the not-so-distant time of the late Alitalia, mergers were attempted with KLM and Air France in 2001, Aeroflot in 2007, then Air France again in 2007, then in 2011 a trial merger with Air France/KLM before letting Etihad Airways take up to 49% of the company in 2014. And I pass on other failed attempts from the beginning of the discussions, such as with Lufthansa.

All the equity investments did not save a company that was very successful during the 1970s. At the time, it was one of the major European players in international transport, operating up to 186 aircraft. So it was necessary to face the evidence under the pressure of the European authorities tired of seeing the Italian state replenish the coffers still empty by loans never repaid. And this is how ITA (Italia Trasporto Aereo Spa) was created in 2020 and took over the assets and operations of Alitalia in October 2021 by operating a fleet of sixty aircraft.

And since then, belly dancing has started again. The Italian government, which owns ITA, has made no secret of its intention to sell the company. And the candidates were not long in coming. As early as 14 January 2022, Lufthansa and the Swiss cruise line MSC made a first full takeover offer, which was refused by the Italian state, which wanted to keep an eye on its national carrier. Less than two months later, on March 10, 2022, a  consortium composed of  Air France, Delta Air Lines, and the Certares fund proposed to take a strong minority stake, only Air France was blocked by European rules that first oblige the company to repay loans granted by the state during the Covid crossing. Lufthansa then returned on August 31 with a minority proposal that was rejected by the new government. And finally, on January 19, 2023, the German carrier came back with a new, more minority proposal but with the possibility of buying the entire ITA. It would seem that the transalpine authorities are inclined to accept such an offer, especially since Lufthansa has indicated that if it is not accepted, it will focus its interest on TAP, the Portuguese carrier, or even on SAS, the Nordic company in great difficulty.

That is where we are. And I wonder why it would be so relentless to take control of ITA because it is certainly not in the interest of ITA, but only with the idea of capturing the Italian international market to transit it through foreign airports. This is also why the government is so reluctant to complete an operation from which the country will certainly not come out as a winner. Two previous attempts at reconciling with foreign carriers have failed. Air France which had taken every precaution to preserve Italian self-esteem was never able to organise Alitalia’s operations in coordination with its own. It has never been possible, for example, to unify reservation and check-in systems. Etihad Airways, for its part, has ruined itself by injecting money to make ends meet without getting anything, except at the margin, from the Italian market to Asia or Africa.

It must be recognized that the very strong Italian culture has great difficulty marrying another, even if it is close to it like the French. Let us acknowledge that Lufthansa has succeeded perfectly in taking over Swiss after the disaster of Swissair and Austrian Airlines. But these two carriers are of Germanic culture, which greatly simplifies exchanges. Relations are much more difficult with the Belgians of SN Brussels.

Basically, we still wonder why with a fleet of 60 aircraft that will quickly grow to a hundred and a very dynamic international market, ITA could not cope on its own. After all, many carriers make a profit without having the same strengths.