How to reconcile the growth of air transport and ecological constraints

First of all, let us welcome the agreement between Qatar Airways and Airbus in the dispute between them following the deterioration of the paint of the A350s delivered to the Gulf carrier. Without this “happy ending,” it was more than likely that the war between the two behemoths would have enriched only law firms for years. It is done and Qatar Airways will be able to complete its fleet of A350 of the 21 aircraft that the Qatari civil aviation had grounded, probably at the request of the charismatic president of the company, the 23 A350/1000 that Airbus still has to deliver, and the 50 A321 Neo that the manufacturer retained pending the solution to the conflict. In total, Qatar will be equipped with 44 wide-body and 50 medium-sized aircraft that can also provide long-haul aircraft. In other words, the equivalent of an entire fleet for an already large company.

This comes at the right time because air traffic already well-started in 2022 will still receive an additional boost with the arrival of Asian markets whose impatience of their consumers is still difficult to measure. Despite considerable pressure from environmentalists widely supported by the media, one wonders why the demand for air transport will only increase in the coming years, even with significantly higher fares than in the past.

So how to solve the “squaring of the circle”? The search by airlines for the right solution to reduce costs so as not to ask for too much internal savings finally found its solution in Covid. The dramatic period that air transport has gone through has made it possible to reshuffle the cards. Very naturally, many employees in the sector have left to move towards jobs considered more interesting and probably less restrictive. This has made it possible to reduce the volume of staff and rethink more efficient management. In addition, the need to gradually protect air transport from the permanent threats carried by the ecological wave has made it possible to reverse the price curve hitherto pulled down in a mad race for volume.

Two fundamental factors have thus changed the economic situation: fewer charges on the one hand and better unit revenue on the other, all with a number of passengers certainly still down compared to 2019, but large enough to guarantee serious profitability, as can be seen with American mega carriers. Therefore, it does not take a great cleric to predict that once the levels of 2019 are restored, traffic will start to rise again. It remains to be seen how this growth can be compatible with the objective of reducing CO² emissions.

It is likely to see an increase in long-haul flights with the new single-aisle twin-engine aircraft with 200 to 250 seats. The two major manufacturers have indeed chosen smaller and yet very efficient aircraft by abandoning the very large aircraft that have made the prosperity of the large companies, I am talking about the Boeing 747 and the Airbus 380 whose end of production was announced with a curious simultaneity, but this is probably only a coincidence.

Just to absorb the additional demand that will inevitably unfold, there will probably be a lack of a large aircraft, capable of making a jump equivalent to that experienced when long-haul aircraft went from 100 to 400 seats. Growth, even if it does not reach the 5% rates that we have experienced in the past, will apply to already considerable volumes. Based on 4 billion passengers in 2019, the application of growth 2 times lower, or 2.5%, still leads to 750 million additional passengers from the year 2030. How will we ensure that people who wish to move without sufficient capacity are satisfied?

In the absence of a real revolution in propulsion modes that cannot reasonably be envisaged before the mid-2040s, it seems logical that Boeing as well as Airbus would make a modernized and ecological version of the two giants they have just scrapped. That’s what Tim Clark, the remarkable CEO of Emirates, asks and he’s never been wrong.