The aviation sector is going through repeated turbulence. Recently, on May 2 to be exact, Spirit Airlines, one of the main American low-cost airlines, filed for bankruptcy and stopped all its flights. However, it is not a small operator. It carried up to 44 million passengers in 2024, achieved a turnover of around $5 billion with a fleet of around 200 aircraft. It is difficult to understand why such a company could not resist the rise in oil prices, especially in the United States, which is much less affected than most other countries in the world. It is quite possible that its pricing practices, on the edge of legality, intended to attract a clientele fond of slashed prices, were the main cause of its bankruptcy, especially since repeated complaints had been registered with the American Civil Aviation authorities. I don’t know how many customers, probably several million, bought their tickets in advance. I wish them good luck in recovering their investment. This is another example of the search for visibility at the top of price comparison sites. Sooner or later, pricing practices that do not cover costs will have to end up being sanctioned. It should be remembered that below $40 per flight hour, airlines fall below their break-even point. And let’s keep a thought for the 17,000 employees of the company who will have to find jobs during a difficult period for air transport.

After this example, which we could easily do without, let us return to an aspect that is often ignored and which is nevertheless essential for air transport: the lack of qualified labour.

During the appalling Covid period, which saw air transport reduced to its simplest expression with thousands of aircraft stored on the ground in airports renowned for their desert position, which allowed better preservation of aircraft, manufacturers, engine manufacturers and their countless list of subcontractors massively parted ways with large numbers of employees. We can understand them, they had nothing more to do and, above all, no more prospects because it was impossible to foresee any recovery. So the first to leave were the seniors of these companies who, in many countries and in particular in Western countries, benefited from early retirements paid by governments. This took a great deal of weight off their employers, especially since they were generally the best paid.

But to everyone’s surprise, vaccines were found and put on the market with a speed that no one could have envisaged. So much so that after two years, the lockdowns imposed on the population were lifted and air transport was able to restart with surprising speed. Prices have increased by 30% but customers were so impatient to travel that they easily accepted these prices, which were largely readjusted upwards. And air transport has regained its growth rate, even if the current conflicts are dampening enthusiasm a little. Orders for new aircraft began to pour in, with each carrier wanting to position itself on the manufacturers’ waiting list.

However, the latter are unable to meet the demand. Lead times are getting longer without airlines having a clear view of the delivery rate of their orders. The matter is not so simple. To fly an aircraft, engines are essential and their construction is particularly delicate. The engine manufacturers Safran, but also Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce are unable to manufacture them fast enough for one main reason: there is no longer enough qualified labour. Much of the know-how and experience held by older employees has been lost, and despite tempting offers from manufacturers, new retirees do not seem to be in a hurry to return to work.

The consequences are serious. Currently, around 500 aircraft assembled by manufacturers are grounded because there is simply a lack of engines. This represents a shortfall of around 600,000 seats per day, with an average of 200 seats and 6 daily flights. That’s nearly 200 million seats per year. And this is not going to be solved by a wave of a magic wand. The training of highly qualified and experienced staff first requires time, provided that sufficient new employees can be recruited, trained and supervised. Meanwhile, orders continue to pour in.

In addition, air transport needs rare metals and, as their name suggests, they are difficult to obtain. The sector of activity is a victim of its own success, a bit like overtourism, and it is very difficult to curb such activity, to the great displeasure of environmentalists.

Movement is one of the defining characteristics of air transport, and that is quite normal. But since the beginning of 2026, we have been witnessing changes that are likely to have a lasting impact on this sector. Despite the current difficulties, which we hope will soon be behind us, the trend appears to be moving towards improved service quality combined with a general increase in fares.

The best example is still provided by Emirates. It has just published its results for the 2025/2026 financial year, which ended on March 31 this year. The results are impressive. Although the number of passengers declined by 1% to 53.2 million, revenue increased by 2% to $35.7 billion and, above all, net profit reached an unprecedented level of $5.4 billion. The load factor fell slightly to 78.4%, compared to 78.9% the previous year, but yield increased by 4%, representing revenue of $10.4 per passenger kilometre transported. This avalanche of figures leaves us dreaming, as it clearly demonstrates the company’s outstanding performance. Emirates also maintains a highly prosperous net cash position of $15 billion, allowing it to cover its fuel purchases over a long period and greatly mitigate the effects of oil price spikes. In total, the company generated a net profit equivalent to 15% of its turnover, representing one of the best performances ever seen in air transport.

This is the result of a strategy based entirely on service quality and reasonable pricing. It relies on the regular renewal of its fleet, which currently numbers 277 long-haul aircraft, as well as strong cooperation with dnata, its parent company, which manages among other things airport activities in Dubai.

I also note that product improvement has become a constant in today’s air transport industry. Traditional airlines that had allowed their service quality to decline in order to align fares with those of low-cost carriers are now moving in the opposite direction. It must be recognised that all major carriers have undertaken to rethink their products, from airport access to in-flight services. So much so that airlines which had abandoned the concept of first class are now in the process of reintroducing it. I also note that improving service quality in premium cabins inevitably benefits economy class as well and gives crews a greater sense of pride, encouraging them to interact even better with customers. This strongly resembles the beginning of a virtuous cycle that can only be welcomed.

Low-cost airlines have also followed this new direction. We can even see American operators such as JetBlue opening lounges in airports. These same low-cost carriers are now embracing distribution through travel agents and GDSs, something they had fiercely resisted until now. We even see an airline such as Ryanair, long known for defending the lowest possible fares through the support of local authorities, backtracking in the face of the growing need to abandon practices that once made it successful. Public subsidies will indeed be completely banned in Europe, at least.

Conversely, proponents of ultra-low fares may struggle to survive. A major operator such as Spirit Airlines was forced to shut down because the support it expected from the federal authorities, promised by Donald Trump, ultimately failed to materialise. In Europe, carriers known for very low fares such as Wizz Air or Volotea also have reason for concern, although they provide a valuable service by operating routes abandoned by traditional airlines. Without public support, it is difficult to see how they will withstand the impact of rising Jet A1 fuel prices, since they have little or no protection against fuel price increases, unlike the major carriers.

To overcome these difficulties, relations between so-called regional airlines and local authorities may need to be fundamentally rethought. Rather than granting subsidies, which are clearly unsustainable, regional authorities would be better advised to purchase air services from carriers through competitive tenders, with revenues managed by the contracting authority. However, this may require a revision of existing public regulations. Such a procedure already applies to regional rail transport, and it is difficult to see why it should not also be extended to air transport.

A prosperous air transport industry is possible provided that we avoid excesses and accept that every service has a real cost, and that selling below that cost is ultimately suicidal.