Air transport has regained its previous colours, and the results for 2024 will be historic, even if the wall of 5 billion passengers and 1,000 billion in revenue will not be broken this year. It will probably be very close. And the growth continues without us knowing very well where it will stop. Gulf airlines are still in demand for more aircraft under pressure from Saudi Arabia, the newcomer to the exclusive club of very large airlines, and the return of Etihad in better shape. Asia is continuing to develop, and Africa is starting to show up in earnest. In short, everything would look good if there weren’t two huge hurdles to overcome: decarbonization and the manufacture of devices.
We can be confident about the progress made by the aviation sector on the road to decarbonization, even if the date of 2050 seems utopian for achieving carbon neutrality. Colossal investments in research will be required to achieve this, and air transport customers will have to pay well. No doubt they will do it if they have to, even if they complain.
On the other hand, the wall of aircraft deliveries is a completely different story. Let’s line up a few figures to understand the stakes; they are taken from the analyses of the IDAERO firm. Airbus estimates that in 2040 it will take nearly 47,000 aircraft to meet demand, but in 2020 there were only 22,800 in service. They have all been put back into operation, and in the deserts, there are only 3,900 aircraft left, compared to 15,200 in 2020. And orders continue to pour in. The order book is at an all-time high with more than 15,000 aircraft, but deliveries from the two main manufacturers are down compared to 2023. If between January and September Airbus had garnered 645 net orders and Boeing 272, a total of 917 in only 3 quarters, Airbus deliveries are estimated at only 770 in 2024, and Boeing’s are struggling to take off. The American manufacturer only delivered 13 aircraft at least in November, 4 times less than the previous year.
So how can we make up for the production deficit in relation to the demand for transport and the ever-increasing order book? This is where the impasse lies, especially since the engine manufacturers, and in particular those who supply the very large engines, are also struggling. However, without an engine, there is no aircraft, and without avionics, there is no aircraft either, and without a perfect production line, nothing is possible. So airlines will have to deal with a shortage of equipment for years. This is a particularly difficult equation to solve. Carriers make their operating schedule several years in advance based on their market analysis and expected deliveries based on their order book. However, since the end of the terrible Covid episode, they have been confronted with delivery delays for their production facilities. It’s like the builder of a house postponing its delivery indefinitely because he would be unable to complete it. We can see the disastrous consequences for an individual, so for large machines such as airlines, the stress is even greater. Sir Tim Clark, the CEO of Emirates, is the first to complain that he still does not have the delivery date of the Boeing 777s ordered in … 2012.
To tell the truth, we do not see how to get out of the impasse. Of course, there are still a few slightly old aircraft to be put back into service. This is particularly the case for the A380s capable of carrying more than 500 passengers, but this will be far from enough, especially since the new aircraft are much more efficient than the old ones, and the airlines have made their calculations on the basis of the economic and operational performance promised by the manufacturers.
Moreover, the shortage of pilots is also on the horizon. There are about ten pilots per aircraft. It therefore remains to find at least 400,000 new drivers by 2040, knowing that the current crews will have to be replaced when they reach the end of their careers. But how can crew training be adjusted to that of aircraft deliveries when there is no visibility as to the dates of acceptance?
However, customers do not want to know about the difficulties of the carriers; they demand that the operating programs be respected. Ultimately, the only way to resolve this impasse would be to curb demand, at least until manufacturers are able to deliver orders on schedule. There is only one way to do it: increase tariffs to reduce demand. Is it really such a bad solution?
