The return of wide-body aircraft

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They were said to be obsolete, too expensive to operate, too CO² consuming, and too old, in short, they had all the defects. For decades, they were the only ones that could be operated on distant destinations. To cross the oceans, twin-engine aircraft needed an ETOPS rating (Extended-range Operations by Twin-Engine airplanes), i.e., the number of flight hours allowed to reach the first airport on a single engine. The first jets were authorized ETOPS 120, that is, they had to not exceed a distance of 2 hours to reach an airport. Gradually we went to ETOPS 180, or three hours for most jets, and we are now at ETOPS 370 for the A350 XWB. Even the new A321 XLR is authorized at a distance of 8700 km, so it can easily cross the Atlantic.

In other words, the field of activity reserved only for four-engine aircraft can now be occupied by much smaller aircraft. The latter is more easily filled and at a time when airlines were trying to focus on load factors at the expense of comfort and even fare, it made more sense to replace wide-body aircraft with lighter aircraft. And now Covid has arrived at the right time to ground the Boeing 747 and Airbus 380. While these devices were widely preferred by customers, they were of an old design and operators wanted to get rid of them as soon as possible. The opportunity was too good, it was seized immediately.

The world has emerged from this disastrous period and even if the conflict between Ukraine and Russia still pollutes the atmosphere, the demand for transport has suddenly resumed. Ecological injunctions have certainly been taken into account by the sector, but the results are not expected for twenty years. In the meantime, we must give satisfaction to the market. And, icing on the cake, tariffs have increased very significantly, by around 30%, which makes it much easier to reach the break-even point. Of course, the brand new large jets, the Boeing 777X and Airbus 350-1000 can carry more than 400 passengers, which brings their capacity closer to that of the latest Boeing 747-8 and Airbus A380, but customers still prefer the latter, which still carry 200 more passengers. And then manufacturers are struggling to deliver the recently ordered devices.

So we take the four-engine aircraft out of the aircraft cemeteries where they were stored. Not surprisingly, Emirates has put its A380s back into service. It was the first, I would say as usual. And it worked so well that the B777s were gradually being replaced by the flag aircraft, mainly for the higher classes, First and Business, for which the A380 had no equivalent. But the Boeing 747-8 has still not said its last word. It is also newer than its competitor Airbus. This is how the big carriers bring out the biggest devices when they thought they would never reuse them. The demand for transport is present, it is dynamic and the approximately 4 billion passengers transported in 2019 will probably be reached in 2023, but with a much higher turnover given the rise in prices. This phenomenon can be seen in all continents, following Qantas’ recent announcement of the return of its A380s, the last carrier to return to service with its B747s, is Korean Air, while Asian countries were the last to fully open their borders.

We buried the magnificent devices a little quickly. They have made air travel prosper and they have allowed new layers of less fortunate customers to still benefit from the freedom attached to this mode of transport. The very high demand will not be able to be supported solely by the multiplication of smaller aircraft, even if they make it possible to open new direct services without going through the “hubs” so complicated and so expensive to operate.

Major airports are again close to saturation. Aircraft parking lots and the number of walkways cannot be developed infinitely except to create new platforms very far from urban areas. But then it will be necessary to take into account in the calculation of CO² emissions the increasingly distant journeys to get to the terminals.

It might be wise for the two major manufacturers to get back to the dough to create new, more efficient versions of aircraft with more than 600 seats. Boeing has made 8 versions of its fabulous 747, Airbus only one of the A380 despite the enormous insistence of Tim Clark the boss of Emirates who says he is ready to be the launch carrier of the big aircraft of the future.

Air transport can say thank you to covid

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Let’s assume that we are out of the nightmare of the pandemic since China has just dropped its barriers. It is the last country after being the first to close its borders. Vaccines are effective and the vast majority of populations are now protected. And finally, air transport is not doing so badly, and we can even imagine that Covid has been beneficial to it, for several reasons.

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Photo by Maria Tyutina

First, it showed its usefulness to such an extent that the states supported it even beyond what could be hoped. Thus the US has injected more than 60 billion dollars to keep the companies alive, France has massively supported its national carrier, but also, even in a lesser way, the other companies, and the German government has gone so far as to take shares in the Lufthansa group when it was against its principles and those of the company. Italy tried desperately to save Alitalia, but that patient was terminally ill and had to resign himself to the loss of his national jewel to replace it with ITA.

All this clearly shows how air transport is considered by States to be of exceptional importance. Governments have understood that it is both an essential factor in the economy and the best ambassador of countries. At the height of the pandemic, it proved its usefulness in transporting masks and vaccines. No one doubts its usefulness anymore, here is the first result.

And then during this troubled period, officials took the opportunity to launch major reorganization maneuvers. A large number of employees have left the sector, which has made it possible to reduce the size of the workforce without having to face major social movements. Thus companies now find themselves with a reduced payroll and a better organization. The recovery has certainly forced hiring to resume, but it is necessary to get traffic through. As a result, ratios are improving and the results that are beginning to be published for 2022 reflect a better performance in the management of companies.

Meanwhile, many carriers took the opportunity to ground the oldest aircraft and replace them with the latest generation of aircraft that are more suitable and more efficient. This has several advantages. First, a serious step towards carbon neutrality, which remains the essential condition for the acceptance of air transport by new generations. The new aircraft are more comfortable, better

equipped, and the air transport product is seriously improved. Finally, the new aircraft consume less fuel, so they cost less and they are ready for the use of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel). Still, many ground devices are quite suitable for use. It would be a shame to let them rot when they would be very useful in some countries that still do not have access to new aircraft.

Finally, prices have risen significantly. The mad race for volumes from ever lower tariffs has come to an abrupt end. Increases of around 30% have become commonplace. So this irritates a part of consumers who had become accustomed to traveling for ridiculous prices but which they finally thought were the norm. We are gradually returning to common sense, on the express condition that the tariff war does not resume. The danger is not removed because we are going towards a period where the supply will be plethoric between the new devices ordered and those that will leave the car parks. For the moment, demand is still dynamic and it accepts the new fee schedules. For their part, carriers have seen the value of not selling off their seats recklessly. The financial results were well affected.

What would have happened without the abrupt halt of air transport, for more than 2 years as a result of the pernicious Covid? No doubt the infernal race in which it was launched: more passengers, more aircraft, less revenue, would have continued until the moment when the populations would have demonstrated a rejection of this mode of transport under increased ecologist pressure. The equilibrium load factors would be raised above 90% leading to a deterioration in the quality of service. And the companies’ financial results would have remained just as precarious.

Covid has forced air travel to return to its fundamentals: a quality product, sold at a simply reasonable price.

And that’s fine.

How to reconcile the growth of air transport and ecological constraints

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First of all, let us welcome the agreement between Qatar Airways and Airbus in the dispute between them following the deterioration of the paint of the A350s delivered to the Gulf carrier. Without this “happy ending,” it was more than likely that the war between the two behemoths would have enriched only law firms for years. It is done and Qatar Airways will be able to complete its fleet of A350 of the 21 aircraft that the Qatari civil aviation had grounded, probably at the request of the charismatic president of the company, the 23 A350/1000 that Airbus still has to deliver, and the 50 A321 Neo that the manufacturer retained pending the solution to the conflict. In total, Qatar will be equipped with 44 wide-body and 50 medium-sized aircraft that can also provide long-haul aircraft. In other words, the equivalent of an entire fleet for an already large company.

This comes at the right time because air traffic already well-started in 2022 will still receive an additional boost with the arrival of Asian markets whose impatience of their consumers is still difficult to measure. Despite considerable pressure from environmentalists widely supported by the media, one wonders why the demand for air transport will only increase in the coming years, even with significantly higher fares than in the past.

So how to solve the “squaring of the circle”? The search by airlines for the right solution to reduce costs so as not to ask for too much internal savings finally found its solution in Covid. The dramatic period that air transport has gone through has made it possible to reshuffle the cards. Very naturally, many employees in the sector have left to move towards jobs considered more interesting and probably less restrictive. This has made it possible to reduce the volume of staff and rethink more efficient management. In addition, the need to gradually protect air transport from the permanent threats carried by the ecological wave has made it possible to reverse the price curve hitherto pulled down in a mad race for volume.

Two fundamental factors have thus changed the economic situation: fewer charges on the one hand and better unit revenue on the other, all with a number of passengers certainly still down compared to 2019, but large enough to guarantee serious profitability, as can be seen with American mega carriers. Therefore, it does not take a great cleric to predict that once the levels of 2019 are restored, traffic will start to rise again. It remains to be seen how this growth can be compatible with the objective of reducing CO² emissions.

It is likely to see an increase in long-haul flights with the new single-aisle twin-engine aircraft with 200 to 250 seats. The two major manufacturers have indeed chosen smaller and yet very efficient aircraft by abandoning the very large aircraft that have made the prosperity of the large companies, I am talking about the Boeing 747 and the Airbus 380 whose end of production was announced with a curious simultaneity, but this is probably only a coincidence.

Just to absorb the additional demand that will inevitably unfold, there will probably be a lack of a large aircraft, capable of making a jump equivalent to that experienced when long-haul aircraft went from 100 to 400 seats. Growth, even if it does not reach the 5% rates that we have experienced in the past, will apply to already considerable volumes. Based on 4 billion passengers in 2019, the application of growth 2 times lower, or 2.5%, still leads to 750 million additional passengers from the year 2030. How will we ensure that people who wish to move without sufficient capacity are satisfied?

In the absence of a real revolution in propulsion modes that cannot reasonably be envisaged before the mid-2040s, it seems logical that Boeing as well as Airbus would make a modernized and ecological version of the two giants they have just scrapped. That’s what Tim Clark, the remarkable CEO of Emirates, asks and he’s never been wrong.