What Aircraft Do We Need?
I am certainly not a great scientist or a forecasting specialist, but that does not prevent me from asking myself what aircraft we will need over the next two decades. We face two contradictory certainties. On the one hand, passenger numbers will double by 2040, everyone agrees on that. On the other, we will have to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, as announced in 2012 by Giovanni Bisignani, then CEO of IATA. This goal has never been called into question since, even though it seems impossible to achieve. Meeting this enormous challenge will certainly require new aircraft to be brought to market.
The major manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, are undoubtedly exploring the issue. Yet we have the impression that they are in no hurry, probably because their current aircraft ranges sell easily and their production processes are well established. In other words, the big two make so much money from existing aircraft that they feel no urgency to develop new models. And yet we will need them.
To carry the approximately 10 billion passengers expected in the next 10 to 15 years, we will first need very large aircraft capable of carrying 1,000 passengers. Merely mentioning this figure is enough to be met, at best, with derision. And yet, what would people have said in 1960 about anyone who envisaged aircraft with more than 300 seats capable of crossing oceans, when the iconic Boeing 707 had only just entered the market, carrying just 110 passengers with a very limited range? We will have to make a comparable leap, moving from aircraft accommodating around 350 passengers, I am thinking of the Airbus A350 or the Boeing 777 in their various versions, to aircraft with 1,000 seats. If we do not, we will have to triple the number of flights, which would be unacceptable to people living near airports. Nor can the number of airports increase indefinitely, unless we build enormous facilities in very sparsely populated areas. These would then have to be connected to major cities through substantial investment in ground transport links.
The environmental challenge adds another layer of complexity to accommodating this growth. One very large aircraft would do the same job as three of today’s large-capacity aircraft. It is also difficult to see how air traffic could be managed if the number of flights tripled. This raises the question of how these new aircraft will be powered. The answer has yet to be found. Of course, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) offers part of the solution, but it appears to have its limits. We are still searching for the technological breakthrough that will provide the answer.
We are beginning to see significant progress in electric propulsion. For now, experts describe it as unrealistic because it cannot provide enough power to get aircraft off the ground, even if it can be used once they reach altitude, as Bertrand Piccard demonstrated with Solar Impulse. But until the end of the 19th century, similar doubts surrounded the possibility of heavier-than-air machines flying while carrying passengers. We have to trust researchers. Of course, we are always impatient to see their work bear fruit, and we are reluctant to fund it until we are certain it will succeed. But we must accept that failure is part of the path to success.
Then there is the development of high-speed rail. The TGV, introduced in France in the mid-1970s on the Paris–Lyon route, has since been followed by the widespread expansion of high-speed rail across Europe, where distances lend themselves to its use. Similar developments can be seen in Asia, beginning with Japan and now China, as well as in the Emirates and the United States. In regions such as California and Texas, some major cities are close enough together to justify building and operating fast trains as an alternative to flying. Morocco is acquiring such systems, Russia is doing the same, and Chinese companies are building new railway lines across Asia. This could offer a promising way to accommodate the anticipated growth in travel demand.
The fact remains that research in air transport will have to be funded, and the cost will be borne mainly by consumers, in other words, passengers. We should therefore expect fares to continue rising.
