The return of the A380
It is the story of a success transformed into a failure, only to end up becoming a success again for the carriers capable of making it profitable. Its story began with a sketch in 1988 because, at the time, it was necessary to position oneself against a triumphant Boeing. However, it took 7 years to start the project in 1995 and another 10 years before making the first flight on April 27, 2005. The first airline delivered was Singapore Airlines, which made the first commercial flight on October 15, 2007.
The development cost was staggering: in total, including penalties for late deliveries, it amounted to $26.5 billion, while the first estimate was, so to speak, only $8 billion. These huge investments were not all supported by Airbus; engine manufacturers and major equipment suppliers also took their share. And the beautiful bird flew away. I remember very well the first time I saw it fly—it was at the Paris Air Show, and what was striking was both its enormous size and very low noise compared to other large aircraft, like the Boeing 747/400 at the time.
The first market study indicated a potential for 2,046 aircraft over 20 years, quickly reduced to 1,300. This was without taking into account the development of twin-engine aircraft capable of carrying between 200 and 400 passengers over distances of 7,000 to 15,000 km. According to experts, including Tom Enders, the former head of Airbus, this aircraft arrived on the market 10 years too late—a bit like the famous Lockheed Constellation at the end of the 1950s, which was literally killed by the arrival of long-haul jets, starting with the Boeing 707. So, sales collapsed, and only 251 A380s were built and delivered to 13 operators, the largest of which was Emirates with 123 orders—half of the fleet. The last A380 was delivered in 2021.
Then, COVID hit air transport, reducing it to almost nothing in just one month, as states closed their borders in a hellish game of dominoes. All fleets were stored in deserts, where aircraft could be best preserved, and as countries gradually reopened, airlines returned their aircraft to service with great caution. There was no question of flying the largest model because they did not have confidence in their ability to fill it. Major airlines such as Air France, Asiana, China Southern, Malaysian Airlines, or Thai International have simply taken the A380 out of their fleet and condemned themselves to never operate it again.
But the demand for transport soared again. The first signs were felt in 2022, and traffic exploded in 2023. Admittedly, it was not homogeneous, as major Asian markets only opened up late, but when they did, customers rushed back to air travel. However, one of the two major manufacturers, Boeing, found itself in a truly catastrophic situation, which prevented it from delivering aircraft urgently ordered by operators when they realized the need to deal with an unexpected surge in demand. As a result, airlines had no choice but to put their large aircraft back into service, capable of replacing two good-sized twin-engine jets, such as the Boeing 787.
Thus, gradually, 10 companies have put all or part of their A380s back into service. To their credit, Emirates, which has always believed in this aircraft, has put 95 A380s back into operation and even bought 5 of them from a Guernsey lessor for only 200 million dollars, while the list price, never applied, was 437 million dollars each. Curiously, Emirates has always considered the A380 a cash machine, while its competitors have struggled to make it profitable. Nevertheless, British Airways has restarted its 12 aircraft, Lufthansa the 8 that remain, Qantas 8 out of 10, and Singapore Airlines half of its 24 aircraft. Most recently, Etihad Airways announced the resumption of its A380 flights between Abu Dhabi and Paris.
What can we learn from all this? First of all, the demand for air transport, far from weakening, remains very dynamic. From then on, the capacity of the A380s became essential to compensate for Boeing’s delivery difficulties, which we do not know when they will end. It is possible that carriers who have removed this model from their fleet will regret it. Finally, it is clear that air transport will need a very large aircraft, on the order of 1,000 seats, to solve the impossible equation of satisfying the demand for transport while achieving the decarbonization objectives announced for 2050.
