The Future Giants Of Air Transport
We are used to the ever-increasing figures of air transport, wholesale and for the year 2025, 5 billion
passengers, 1,000 billion dollars in turnover, more than 15,000 aircraft in regular operation by 1,200
carriers, 800 of which carry 98% of the market. And growth continues at the same rate of 5% per
year, which leads to a doubling every 15 years, despite the formidable environmental lobby, the main
enemy of this mode of transport. I note, however, that despite this continuous growth, air transport
produces a constantly decreasing proportion of CO² compared to other economic sectors on the
planet. It is now below the 3% mark and the figure will inevitably decrease with the arrival of a new
generation of aircraft, better airspace management and a constantly increasing average size of
aircraft.
This growth will not be driven by traditional carriers, which will continue to grow below 4% year after
year, but by new entrants. The domination of the Western world will gradually disappear in favor of
Asian, and even African, operators. Two carriers attract attention.
Turkish Airlines
It is not an Asian carrier and not a European one either. Before the year 2000, the Turkish national
airline was not talked about although it was born in 1933. But under the impetus of Racep Tayyip
Erdogan, then Prime Minister, orders for aircraft intensified and airport facilities were renovated
with the construction of Istanbul’s new airport, capable of handling 150 million passengers, twice the
capacity of Europe’s largest airport, Roissy Charles de Gaulle. So where will the company stop?
It has built a considerable network from its hub that serves 352 destinations, more than the 350 of
American Airlines, currently the world’s largest airline group. It operates 490 aircraft and has placed
orders for 352 new aircraft. This will give it the means to expand. It has already become a serious
competitor for Gulf carriers by positioning itself in their market of connections between Asia and
other continents.
This strategy has been very successful because with a turnover of $22.7 billion in 2024, 10 times that
of 20 years earlier, it has generated a net profit of $3.64 billion that would be the envy of many. This
is enough to open up the means for him to achieve his ambitions.
Indigo
This Indian carrier never ceases to amaze. Created much more recently, in 2005, it is now managed
by Pieter Elbers, the former CEO of KLM, who came into conflict with Benjamin Smith, the head of
the Air France/KLM group. There is no doubt that he will not stop taking his revenge against the
Europeans who, in the end, preferred a Canadian to head one of the three major airline groups on
the continent. Admittedly, Indigo is for the moment much smaller than Turkish Airlines, at least in
economic terms: 10 billion dollars in turnover, for a positive result of 860 million dollars. But the
operational figures are impressive: 434 aircraft in operation for 126 destinations mainly located in
the Indian subcontinent and more than 100 million passengers carried. What is impressive are the
company’s ambitions materialized by the most extraordinary order of aircraft: 1,016 to be said,
admittedly to be delivered spread over several years. But in this order there are now long-haul
flights. In other words, Indigo’s projects will not be limited to India or even to Gulf destinations.
Europe is undoubtedly in Pieter Elbers’ sights.
We could add other Asian carriers and in particular Air Asia and especially the Indonesian Lion Air,
which it should be remembered was the first victim of Boeing’s failures with the loss of the first B737
Max for which the manufacturer had blamed the operator at the time.
Just by looking at the distribution of the considerable aircraft orders, around 18,000, by recalling that
the average value of an aircraft is 100 million dollars, we can see very well that the growth of air
transport will be brought by the countries located around the Indian Ocean. However, these are not,
for the moment at least, permeable to ecological pressures.
