The Future Air Majors

For a long time, American companies drove air transport. Then came Europe, which was subsequently supplanted by the newcomers from the Gulf, who created a new standard of comfort. It seems that all these carriers have reached a peak in terms of their growth and now have to make do with slower development for several reasons, including the brakes put on the industry by environmental groups, which have targeted aviation because of its effectiveness in the media.

And yet, whether we like it or not, air transport continues to grow. We only have to think of the 20,000 or so aircraft currently on order, bearing in mind that the average value of a modern aircraft is $100 million. The figures are dizzying, and it is difficult to see how such growth could be sustained solely by the countries that have made this sector prosperous so far.

So, of course, there is Asia.

Two countries are now driving air transport on this huge continent: China and India. Chinese airlines currently operate 4,476 aircraft and have an estimated need for 6,810 new aircraft by 2035, while India, which currently operates only 860 aircraft, has ordered 2,250 new aircraft for the same period. This gives us some idea of what lies ahead.

By comparison, all European airlines currently operate around 6,500 aircraft, with orders estimated at 3,500 by 2035, while the figures for the United States are of a similar order. This clearly shows that, in less than 10 years, the leaders in air transport will be Asian.

But apart from these two giants, the other countries of Southeast Asia are beginning to make their presence felt very seriously. If we define Southeast Asia broadly as a region stretching from the Philippines to Bangladesh, there are no fewer than 60 significant scheduled airlines. In Vietnam alone, nine carriers share a market that is expanding rapidly.

New operators are springing up like mushrooms. One of the latest arrivals, Viet Travel Airlines, operates only five aircraft but has just ordered 50 from Airbus during the most recent visit of the President of the French Republic, Emmanuel Macron.

VietJet, created in 2009, has 97 aircraft in its fleet and has 76 on order, more than a third of which are long-haul aircraft. The latest Vietnamese operator, Sun Phu Quoc, created in 2025, operates 18 aircraft and has ordered 49, a high proportion of which are long-haul aircraft.

Little-known airlines outside Asia, such as Cebu Pacific in the Philippines, Lion Air in Indonesia, and AirAsia, are now largely comparable in size to many European airlines. The AirAsia group alone has placed orders for 500 long- and short-haul aircraft.

For a long time, only a few established operators were identified as major airlines worldwide: Singapore Airlines, Air India, and Air China, for example. But the newcomers are much more dynamic.

IndiGo is on its way to becoming India’s leading airline, and it has even had the distinction of attracting former IATA Director General Willie Walsh to its leadership team. I also note that Air India has appointed Tewolde Gebremariam, the emblematic former head of Ethiopian Airlines, as its new CEO.

We are not at the end of the surprises coming from this continent. How long will it take for Chinese manufacturers to become serious competitors to Airbus and Boeing? How long will it take for newcomers from this continent to make a significant push into Western countries? After all, they will have to find destinations on which to deploy the fleets they have on order.

I would add that Western carriers would be well advised to bring their service standards up to a level comparable to those of their counterparts in this region.

These countries have understood that air transport is a key factor in economic development, which they very much need in order to meet the needs of their young populations. These populations are increasingly well educated and connected to the world, and they have a strong appetite for new technologies.

They will not be held back by environmental opposition to air transport.

Air transport is once again proving its usefulness for the good of the planet.