The Thorn in the Side of Air Transport
The aviation sector is going through repeated turbulence. Recently, on May 2 to be exact, Spirit Airlines, one of the main American low-cost airlines, filed for bankruptcy and stopped all its flights. However, it is not a small operator. It carried up to 44 million passengers in 2024, achieved a turnover of around $5 billion with a fleet of around 200 aircraft. It is difficult to understand why such a company could not resist the rise in oil prices, especially in the United States, which is much less affected than most other countries in the world. It is quite possible that its pricing practices, on the edge of legality, intended to attract a clientele fond of slashed prices, were the main cause of its bankruptcy, especially since repeated complaints had been registered with the American Civil Aviation authorities. I don’t know how many customers, probably several million, bought their tickets in advance. I wish them good luck in recovering their investment. This is another example of the search for visibility at the top of price comparison sites. Sooner or later, pricing practices that do not cover costs will have to end up being sanctioned. It should be remembered that below $40 per flight hour, airlines fall below their break-even point. And let’s keep a thought for the 17,000 employees of the company who will have to find jobs during a difficult period for air transport.
After this example, which we could easily do without, let us return to an aspect that is often ignored and which is nevertheless essential for air transport: the lack of qualified labour.
During the appalling Covid period, which saw air transport reduced to its simplest expression with thousands of aircraft stored on the ground in airports renowned for their desert position, which allowed better preservation of aircraft, manufacturers, engine manufacturers and their countless list of subcontractors massively parted ways with large numbers of employees. We can understand them, they had nothing more to do and, above all, no more prospects because it was impossible to foresee any recovery. So the first to leave were the seniors of these companies who, in many countries and in particular in Western countries, benefited from early retirements paid by governments. This took a great deal of weight off their employers, especially since they were generally the best paid.
But to everyone’s surprise, vaccines were found and put on the market with a speed that no one could have envisaged. So much so that after two years, the lockdowns imposed on the population were lifted and air transport was able to restart with surprising speed. Prices have increased by 30% but customers were so impatient to travel that they easily accepted these prices, which were largely readjusted upwards. And air transport has regained its growth rate, even if the current conflicts are dampening enthusiasm a little. Orders for new aircraft began to pour in, with each carrier wanting to position itself on the manufacturers’ waiting list.
However, the latter are unable to meet the demand. Lead times are getting longer without airlines having a clear view of the delivery rate of their orders. The matter is not so simple. To fly an aircraft, engines are essential and their construction is particularly delicate. The engine manufacturers Safran, but also Pratt & Whitney and Rolls-Royce are unable to manufacture them fast enough for one main reason: there is no longer enough qualified labour. Much of the know-how and experience held by older employees has been lost, and despite tempting offers from manufacturers, new retirees do not seem to be in a hurry to return to work.
The consequences are serious. Currently, around 500 aircraft assembled by manufacturers are grounded because there is simply a lack of engines. This represents a shortfall of around 600,000 seats per day, with an average of 200 seats and 6 daily flights. That’s nearly 200 million seats per year. And this is not going to be solved by a wave of a magic wand. The training of highly qualified and experienced staff first requires time, provided that sufficient new employees can be recruited, trained and supervised. Meanwhile, orders continue to pour in.
In addition, air transport needs rare metals and, as their name suggests, they are difficult to obtain. The sector of activity is a victim of its own success, a bit like overtourism, and it is very difficult to curb such activity, to the great displeasure of environmentalists.
